Baseball is a sport that can offer you odds above 2.0 on teams that should be on 1.40. How come? It's called runline its exactly the same as -1.5 asian handicap in football hockey or any other sport.
But in baseball its alot better because its alot more runs (which is equal) to goals in a game which makes the chance that the -1.5 actually goes in alot higher. When sportsbook sets their "lines" they go so much on stats to much on stats in this case so they see that the best run producing team in baseball have an avarage of 5.5 runs per game and the lowest have 3.35 runs per game. Which makes runlines look pretty darn hard to win on but they really aren't. I'm gonna give you an example.
Real Madrid - Almeria -1.5 on R.Madrid gives you 1.95 in odds. the equal matchup this season in baseball would be...
Philladelphia Phillies - Houston Astro's and -1.5 1.95 in odds.
On paper this looks like a even matchup between both sports. It's not.
In football a team can put their bus infront of the goal and just play defensive trying to hold down the score as much as possible and alot of the small teams do that against the topteams in europe. In baseball no such thing exist.
In baseball the most important thing for runlines to be profitable are
1. Starting pitchers
2. Hitting capability
3. Form
Home-team or Away-team why does it matter for runlines in baseball?
A factor to take in is if the team play away or home. Because if they play at home they only have 8 innings to create the runline for you unless they manage to do it with a HR in 9th or extra innings.
If a game is tie at 5-5 going into the 9th inning the only way Phillies can actually get you a runline won is to be able to obviously score 2 runs. And that can only be done by having 1 or more people on-base and then hit a homerun. If for example you have a person on second base and score him with a single and the result become 5-6 then the game stops and Phillies win without getting you the runline even tho they might have if the game doesn't stop at that point. And if Phillies was the away team and the same thing happend they would have had chances to score more and continue because the hometeam are due-up after.
And thats why runlines for home-teams are generally higher then for away-teams.
Hope you guys found this article intrested, im not expecting you to leave your football but maybe I made you understand why baseball can be profitable! |
